Commentary/Janardan Thakur

He may be a man of consensus, but the UF chietains will not find Gujral a pushover

The circumstances of Inder Kumar Gujral's accession to the leadership of the ragbag United Front and, eventually, to prime ministership were not very different from the murky palace intrigues and conspiracies that littered the dying years of the Mughal era with a succession of nondescript, ineffectual and, often, profligate rulers who strutted their hour upon the stage.

None of the latter day nobles of Delhi's durbar -- Congress chief Sitaram Kesri, Janata Dal leader Laloo Yadav, Defence Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, the satraps from the south, Chandrababu Naidu, G K Moopanar and Karunanidhi, Marxist 'Chanakya' Harkishan Singh Surjeet -- actually wanted Gujral for the top job. But the problem was they wanted each other even less. Each was out to undercut the other and, so fierce was their opposition, they had to pick someone above the fray.

Gujral, who has already made a tremendous impact in Parliament as leader, is an impeccable diplomat and has vast experience as minister with various portfolios over the years. His problem, which actually turned out to be his asset, is that he has no political roots. Gujral is acceptable across the political spectrum because he may be so easy to pull down. As one observer put it, "in a kingdom without kings, kingship is often thrust upon the man without a kingdom."

Indeed, Delhi's history is an instruction in just how fine the line is between potentate and puppet. It has had leaders who were there because they could lead like none else could; it has also had leaders who were there because they could be led like none else could.

As Gujral was thrust closer and closer to the top job in the swirl of political confusion, he could not have been burdened by the conviction that he belonged to the latter category. It was not, after all, any great groundswell of support that was pushing him to the troubled summit. It was in fact his lack of political clout, his relatively low political profile and his "innocuousness" that brought him the job. He was installed largely because no political party, perhaps not even the BJP, had the courage to go to the people at this point.

But then, the new government certainly holds no guarantees against elections. When Deve Gowda became prime minister last year, nobody was sure how long he would last. The same is true even now. Amid the wide praise for Gujral's great debut, the most persistent question all around was, "How long"?

Gujral's installation has solved none of the problems that led to Deve Gowda's sudden departure. The Front now seems even more 'united' than before. The bigwigs of the Congress are hugging Gujral and assuring him they will not pull him down, but you can never tell when their lust for power will get the better of them. Without power, they are like fish out of water. Most people think they will take the first opportunity to sneak into the government or, if that does not work, pull the carpet again, never mind their assurances to President Shankar Dayal Sharma. He may not even be there after some months.

The Bharatiya Janata Party is obviously gaining because of the mess created jointly by the Congress and the United Front. What forced their hand was actually their fear that, in the event of snap poll, the BJP would capture power at the centre. They had little choice but to put together a government.

Elections were not part of his calculations when Kesri suddenly and unexpectedly withdrew support to the Deve Gowda government on March 30. The decision was widely seen as desperate and irresponsible because not only were foreign secretary level talks with Pakistan on at that time but the budget, which had been hailed popular and growth-oriented, had yet to be passed.

Chacha Kesri, however, was obviously an 'old man in a hurry' or an 'old man in worry' as Atal Bihari Vajpayee quipped in the Lok Sabha. Vajpayee has still not ceased to wonder why Kesri announced his decision on March 30.

Kesri was, no doubt, desperate to capture power and he may have thought the UF would break up the moment he pulled the carpet. Indeed, his acolytes were saying all of March 30 afternoon that Gowda's resignation would come 'any moment.'

That was not to happen, of course, and Kesri had to eat humble pie within days. Under severe pressure from Congress MPs who panicked at the thought of facing elections, the old man scaled down his demand to removing Deve Gowda. Kesri called Deve Gowda "inefficient and communal" and said the Congress was not staking claim to power, it only wanted Deve Gowda out.

And then the UF bosses backtracked on the leadership issue. After saying no, no, no, they suddenly agreed to Deve Gowda's removal. They had no choice, for elections they certainly could not face. "We shall be beaten to pulp," one senior leader of the Front said. Leaders of the UF were also under immense pressure from the constituents to avert polls 'at any cost'.

But a snap poll still looms, despite all the hugging and embracing at Rashtrapati Bhavan by the leaders of the new government and the Congress. Kesri stated publicly (not that such statements are meant to be remembered for long) that now there would be no withdrawal of support. There is also going to be a new coordination committee, with leaders from both the UF and the Congress sitting on it to manage contradictions. Kesri fancies he has become a 'super prime minister'!

How long will the arrangement last? The Front is more like a coalition of tribal chieftains who are quick to draw their swords or spears or whatever. What would make Gujral's task more difficult is the new stance of the Congress. Having secured a bigger say in decision-making, the tensions will only get worse.

The Congress might think it now has a 'stranglehold' over the government. On the other hand, the 'king-makers' and 'wire-pullers' of the Front would like to keep the Congress at bay. The Congress is the main electoral rival of the UF constituents and at the next elections, whenever they come, they would be fighting one another again. The Front parties do not want to be seen by their constituencies to be sleeping with the enemy. Which is their real problem; they want to look virtuous.

Gujral is a man of many talents but the management of contradictions is something that is new to him. What is more, many of the bumptious leaders of the UF may think this 'rootless wonder' would be a pushover. Gujral may be a politician without a mass base, he may be soft and gentle, a man of consensus, but he has shown more than once during his long political career that he has a mind of his own, a mind which withstood even the pressures of the one time 'Empress' and her son, the enfant terrible.

To what extent Gujral would make compromises for the sake of power remains to be seen, but if one knows the man he is not the one to crawl for the chair. Which is what makes many friends and well-wishers of the new prime minister keep their fingers crossed. While they know what the new prime minister could be up against, they are also well acquainted with the Gujral Spine.

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