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Anti-incumbency and the M word

December 28, 2007

Out of its 51 members of the legislative assembly, the Congress re-nominated 49; and 29 of them lost because the popular perception was that they had not done enough work for the people. In contrast, Modi kicked out more than 45 jaded faces in his party from the electoral race. The state Congress had internal rivalries, vertically divided groups and opportunistic leaders. The party did not factor in the reality that the state is under the spell of a rapidly growing middle class.

On the issue of Hindutva, Congressmen are the BJP's B-team. So, Muslim voters, particularly in Kutch and in Saurashtra, didn't vote full steam for Congress candidates. The Congress lost five seats out of six in Kutch, which has 23 percent Muslim votes. In Gujarat, if Hindus vote on communal lines in sensitive pockets, so do Muslims. That is the only explanation we can give for the victory of five Muslim Congress candidates out of the six the party fielded. In Ahmedabad district, they have won from two seats that were not even traditional Congress bastions. In other words, Muslims overwhelmingly voted for Muslim candidates to defeat Hindu candidates of the BJP, the Bahujan Samaj Party and independents.

Wanted: Regional charisma

Sonia's party lacked charismatic leadership in Gujarat. Shankarsinh Vaghela was discredited by Congress partymen and is still known as 'RSS-wallah' and Bharat Solanki hasn't been able to even cash in on his family legacy. In Gujarat, Congress leaders did not only lack charisma to match Modi, they lacked commitment too. So, the Congress high command could not find one leader who could be presented to the voters as the chief ministerial candidate. The undecided floating voters not under Modi's spell were not offered any option, weak or strong. As a result, the Congress appeared headless, directionless and without any native genius to match Modi.

Economic booboos

The Congress ideology and economic policies have been pitted against Modi. The Congress's claim of creating a success of the stock market could have been used to woo the middle class. Ask any Gujarati trader or businessman about the role of economist Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his finance team in creating the economy's 9 percent growth rate and the skyrocketing sensex, and you are likely to get positive feedback about Singh's economic genius.

In his speeches Modi ridiculed Singh for remaining largely unknown to the Indian masses, but he was talking about the prime minister's political identity. Otherwise, the urban Gujarati's faith in the Indian economy -- as mirrored in the Sensex -- is deeper than his faith in Modi's confrontational politics.

But the Congress seemed to have never contemplated getting a business organisation -- the Confederation of Indian Industry, for example -- to stage-manage an event in Gujarat crediting the United Progressive Alliance government for sustaining an economy on steroids. Such an event might just have provided a photo-opportunity for Prime Minister Singh with the richest of rich Gujaratis, including the Ambanis and the Tatas. Instead, it was Modi who flashed his pictures with Mukesh Ambani and Tata.

In Gujarat, playing the economic card is also good politics. The party should have forcefully presented 'Manmohanomics' in Gujarat's cities and towns. Instead, it focused on Sonia's personal agenda and concentrated only on the tribals, the poor, Dalits and backward classes, ignoring the rapidly changing urban middle class. The result: Modi captured their minds and space in public debates and on television. He pulled out all the stops to please the upwardly mobile crowd by promising the better times.

A lot of Congress partymen were depressed to see that most of Modi's successful development polices were actually due to the optimum use of federal government funding. Modi was getting all the credit for it.

In a state where it is no shame to be money-centric, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi were delivering speeches that would not make headlines in any economic news bulletin. Modi was engaging people, saying: Look how the water levels have come up because I laid the Narmada canal. Now, with more crops, you have more money in your hand.

Also read: Modi thanks Gujarat voters
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